by Steven Peralta
Democrats hold nine of New Jersey’s twelve U.S. House seats, and only the 7th and 9th districts are listed as competitive in the November 3 general election (“2026 New Jersey Primary”). The 7th District has gone both ways in recent years. Republican Tom Kean Jr. flipped it in 2022 by three points; Donald Trump carried it by one point in 2024, and Democratic Governor Mikie Sherrill won it by two points in 2025 (“Incumbent”). Kean was reelected in 2024 by 5.4 points (Wildstein, “Pou”), and Sherrill won statewide by 14 points (Livio). The district has roughly 16,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, according to the state’s October registration report. This year, Kean faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who won the June 2 primary (“Tom Kean”). Kean last voted on March 5, missed more than 100 House votes by the primary, and was endorsed by President Donald Trump. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Kean later disclosed he had been treated for depression.
Forecasters have shifted their ratings in Bennett’s direction. Three of them, including Cook Political Report, rated the race Leans Democratic on October 15, and two major Republican PACs have pulled funding. However, Republican committeeman Bill Palatucci called the race a “toss-up.” Both campaigns are raising money, though the figures cover different periods: Bennett announced that she has raised $4 million since July, and Kean had raised $4.89 million by June 30. In a poll conducted from May 24-26, Bennett led Kean 47-43 among 430 likely voters. It was commissioned by 314 Action, a Democratic-aligned group, and was written before Kean’s return to the House. A second poll, taken by StimSight Research for InsiderNJ from September 8 to 12, showed Bennett leading 47% to 42% among 498 likely voters. Its margin of error is 4.7 points.
Statewide polls show low favorability and approval for the President. According to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll in April, 26% of New Jersey adults approved of Trump’s performance, while 61% disapproved; the Inquirer reports that a poll on October 1 found his approval rate at 24%. Those are statewide numbers, and because the 7th District voted for Trump by one point in 2024, they don’t translate directly to the district. The margins also vary from election to election: Representative Mikie Sherrill won the 9th District in 2025 by 59-40%, compared to Representative Nellie Pou’s 4.9-point victory in 2024. Nationally, an Associated Press report says Democratic ads have mentioned the President almost 180,000 times, compared with about 16,000 mentions in Republican ads.
Within the 7th District, the campaigns emphasize different themes. Bennett has focused on costs, proposing to cap child care at 7% of household income, and at a recent event, she mentioned Trump only once. Kean cites his role in restoring the state and local tax deduction through 2029 and, at a late-September debate, broke with Trump on an immigration detention center in Roxbury and on funding for the gateway rail tunnel. The campaigns also attack each other’s records and character.. Bennett criticizes Kean’s congressional stock trading; Kean says he has not traded individual stocks, and his attorney told NJ Monitor that an outside firm manages his investments. A Kean advertisement calls Bennett a “greedy, liberal millionaire,” a characterization that is the campaign’s opinion, not an established fact. Name recognition may also play a role. Kean’s father, former Governor Thomas Kean Sr., was named New Jersey’s best-remembered governor in a 2024 Fairleigh Dickinson poll, and Palatucci said many voters in Hunterdon, Warren, and Sussex counties would not know Bennett, an assessment rather than a poll result.
Research suggests that persuading voters in general elections is difficult. Joshua Kalla and David Broockman’s meta-analysis of 40 field experiments, plus nine of their own (American Political Science Review, 2018), estimated the average effect of campaign contact and advertising on general-election candidate choice at zero. They found effects only in rare circumstances: when candidates held unusually unpopular positions and campaigns invested heavily in identifying persuadable voters, or when campaigns contacted voters long before Election Day, though that early persuasion faded. The study focuses on candidate choice, not turnout, so it says nothing about whether ads like these help get supporters to the polls. It also cannot tell us how voters in the 7th or 9th Districts will respond, and it did not study these campaigns. However, its general findings do suggest caution about how many minds either side’s messaging, including Democrats’ frequent references to Trump, will change.
The 9th District appears less competitive. Forecasters rated the race Likely or Leans Democratic. In 2024, Pou won the district by 50.8% to 45.9% and will face Republican Rosemary Pino in this November election. Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Democratic in April. According to Ballotpedia News, Pou had raised $2.66 million while Pino raised $438,000, as of June 30.
The public record reveals two districts that have experienced partisan shifts in recent elections and campaigns that combine national and local issues, but the evidence has its limits. Ratings are forecasts rather than results; statewide polls do not measure district opinion; the two public 7th District polls came from a Democratic-aligned group and from an outlet whose publisher and CEO have donated to Bennett’s campaign, according to the New Jersey Globe; and campaign statements are claims by interested parties. The October Rutgers-Eagleton and Associated Press figures come from the Inquirer’s reporting rather than the original documents.
