by Benjamin H. Grimaldi
During Maryland’s 2026 gubernatorial election, national politics became a liability for both candidates. Wes Moore sought to nationalize the race by focusing on Trump, while Dan Cox argued that Moore was neglecting Maryland in favor of national politics.
Cox had more to lose from nationalizing the election. Trump’s unpopularity among Democrats and independents made winning them over difficult if Cox was seen as being tied to Trump, so Cox instead emphasized what he saw as Moore’s poor management of Maryland. However, he also attacked Moore’s presidential ambitions, refusal to commit to serving a full second term, and Moore’s tendency to blame Trump for the state’s problems. In other words, Dan Cox has attacked Wes Moore for engaging in national politics and trying to nationalize the elections, because he had more to lose from nationalizing this state gubernatorial election.
Moore has faced difficult circumstances. Governor Hogan left office with a $5 billion surplus, but Maryland now faces a projected 3 billion dollar deficit for the fiscal year of 2028 (7/1/27-6/30/28). 127 million dollars were cut from the budget of the Developmental Disabilities Administration, and the Francis Scott Key Bridge remains under construction, and is projected to be rebuilt by 2030.
Cox blamed Moore’s management, arguing that the money is there but is being misused. Moore, meanwhile, attributed the state’s financial challenges partly to Trump’s cuts to federal aid and federal employment, while highlighting his accomplishments in education and economic development.
At their October 6 debate, Moore attacked Cox’s ties to Trump, while Cox accused Moore of mismanaging Maryland and prioritizing presidential ambitions over governing. Moore’s refusal to clearly commit to serving his full term was particularly damaging. One Baltimore voter I spoke with cited concerns about Moore’s transparency and presidential ambitions as reasons for supporting Cox.
Nevertheless, Moore lead Cox in polling by over 25 percentage points. Anti-Trump sentiment remained strong, although Moore’s approval rating has declined to 49%. In 2022, Moore won nearly 65% of the vote against Cox’s 32%, despite Hogan’s (Republican Governor of Maryland, 2015-2023) approval ratings in the 70s and Biden’s in the 40s. In 2026, Moore faced a Republican opponent who is at least somewhat tied to a Republican president whose approval ratings are nearing the low 30s.
Ultimately, the election shows how Republicans in Maryland should avoid nationalizing elections. Larry Hogan, a Republican governor of Maryland, was able to win re-election with over 55% of the vote in a blue wave election, 2018. One of the major factors in Hogan’s victory was his isolation from national politics. He had never voted for Trump and actually supported his impeachment. Dan Cox cannot do that. He has openly supported Trump, and bussed people to the capital insurrection. In 2018, Hogan outperformed Trump’s performance in 2016 by over 20%. In 2022, Dan Cox’s performance was nearly the same as Trump’s in 2020. In Maryland – a state no Republican has won at a Presidential level since 1988 – Republican candidates for statewide office have to run on state issues, and must be isolated from national politics, especially in this hyper-polarized environment.
