20 Days Left: How We Won in 2020
Article by Luke Netto, HSDA Political Director and TPT Guest Writer
As of the writing of this article, there are 20 days remaining until November 8th, the date on which the American electorate gets to determine the makeup of the United States Congress for the next year, as well as some who determine their state leaders and state legislatures. These elections will dictate, not only policies for the next year, but for the next four or more years. Senators that we elect this November will be holding their seats for six years, giving them a large influence on national politics until 2028. Governors and state executives will be serving for four years, giving them power over how the 2024 elections are run and how states address issues like reproductive rights, voting rights, climate change, and racial justice.
Photo via Anadolu Agency
Midterm elections are traditionally seen as a referendum on the president’s approval. High presidential approval ratings can lead to a Congress supporting the president. Only two presidents have ever gained seats in both the House and the Senate in a midterm election (1934 with FDR’s New Deal proposals and 2002 with George W. Bush after the September 11th attacks). Especially with economic worries, an immigration crisis, and intense political division across the nation, Democrats have an uphill battle as we confront the midterm effect.
So, how do we do it? We must look to 2020 for an answer. In 2020, Democrats won 51.3% of the popular vote. Joe Biden went up against Donald Trump, one of the most consequential presidents, to say the least. Now, two years later, we are back at the polls and need a strategy. While we could assume that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it", we should not. These midterms are very different and later, I will compare the 2020 and 2022 elections from a strategic standpoint. 2020 was an important election, as is this one, and we must enter these final 20 days with the urgency and energy we had in 2020 so we elect forward-thinking Democrats in every state, up and down the ballot.
Statistically
In 2020, several demographics sent Biden on his way to victory. Suburban voters, people of color, and non-college-educated whites all helped Biden overcome Trump. Young voters also proved crucial in Biden's election.
Young voters (aged 18-29; i.e. Gen Z and late Millenials) voted for Biden on a 24-point margin. This is a wide margin, noticeably, but this is also a significant decrease from previous election years (like in 2018 when voters aged 18-29 voted for Democrats on a 49-point margin). What is key though, is that voter turnout surged with more than half of all eligible young Americans voting in the 2020 election. Nearly half of Biden’s votes came from people under the age of 50. Democratic election chances become substantially better as youth voter turnout increases. In 2022, a strong youth voter turnout could benefit Democratic candidates at the ballot box.
Black voters supported Biden by an 84-point margin. After the nationwide protests against racism and police violence, Biden’s promise of reform and justice encouraged Black voters to show out to the polls. Black voter turnout increased, especially among young Black Americans aged 18-29. Black voters are why Biden made it as far as he did, with many owing his successful primary race to the Black electorate in South Carolina.
Latino voters did not deliver Biden his victory in the way they helped Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in their respective elections. In fact, there are large inroads to be made with Latino voters. Latino voters are definitely not all comparable. For example, Cuban Americans (who largely impact electoral politics in the important swing state of Florida) prefer Republicans on a 20-point margin compared with non-Cubans who support Democrats at a rate 33 points higher than Republicans. The current trend actually shows Republicans improving their chances with the Latino electorate, largely due to what some perceive as Democratic inaction on economic and immigration issues.
The geographical gap in the American electorate actually widened in 2020. Rural voters supported Trump by 7 points more than they did in 2016. Despite a decrease in the urban preference for Democrats, Biden increased suburban support for Democrats by 13 points from 2016. 55% of the Democratic voter base in 2020 was from the suburbs.
As It Relates to Organizing
In 2020, of nonvoters, 27% were aged 18-29. Generation Z — our generation — made up 15% of nonvoters who were still eligible to vote. This made it one of the lower voter turnout rates proportional to population. For us to win in 2022, we need to understand the gravity of the situation and the ways in which we can win this election.
In the short couple of years that Biden has been president and has had both chambers of Congress in Democratic control, we passed the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, the Honoring our PACT Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. With a Democratic Senate, we confirmed the first Black woman to sit on the bench of the United States Supreme Court.
President Biden signing the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill into law. Photo via Getty Images.
Now imagine what another two years with an expanded Democratic majority could look like. How do we organize effectively?
First, we must encourage a strong youth voter turnout in areas in all demographics and geographic areas. A strong youth voter turnout will elect Democrats and also prove to the politicians and leaders of today that Generation Z is here to make change and be heard.
Second, we must advocate for issues of importance to all geographic areas like internet access, rural healthcare, homelessness assistance, economic development, and infrastructure. By focusing on all areas, we can grow our Democratic majority. The Democratic Party relies on what is known as the “big tent” — a broad spectrum of voter demographics racially, religiously, sexually, geographically, and politically. We must appeal to all corners of the tent to win.
Third, we must reach out to voters of color and people in ignored areas. Especially since we are seeing a decline in support for Democrats among Latinos, Asian Americans, and Black voters. The candidates for 2022 are some of the most diverse group of candidates yet with many different backgrounds represented. Demonstrating that Democratic Party is the party of justice, equity, and opportunity will bring us voters.
We must stay active and engaged in these last 20 days. We have a lot of work to do to combat the midterm effect. We need to highlight the success of the past years, emphasize the danger posed by extreme Republicans, and reach out to all voters across all demographics and backgrounds.
The views articulated in this piece are the writer’s own, and do not reflect the official stances of The Progressive Teen or HSDA at large.